About
It all started with a question.
"Is it possible to predict the likelihood of injury so we can stop paying for players to sit in the stands?"
2022
NFL ARC 1.0
72% accurate career-based injury and performance predictions for every NFL player.
The Problem
Making poor player selections can be a costly mistake
A single poor acquisition can lead to significant financial losses for a team and hinder its ability to create a championship-level roster. Additionally, players may miss out on the chance to secure substantial earnings if their careers are prematurely shortened due to injuries or coaching choices.
#1
The first accurate ROI tool available in pro sports
72%
2023
NHL ARC 1.0
74% accurate career-based injury and performance predictions for every NHL player
Take a new approach to team selection with Probility's ARC ENGINE
Probility ARC empowers your organization to make better decisions, without replacing your current personnel or making decisions for you.
Availability
Is the player available now? Injury Predictions for the current/next season.
Reliability
Is the player reliable long term? Injury Predictions for the remainder of the player's career.
Capability
Is the player capable of contributing to our team? Performance analysis.
2024
NHL ARC 2.0
21 AI models — highly granular analysis of number of predicted injuries and likely games missed due to each injury.
- Proprietary algorithms rank every player in the league based on predicted Availability, Reliability, and Capability
- Snap count predictions
- Detailed injury severity analysis
- Position depth analysis
NFL ARC 2.0
Predictive rankings extended across the full NFL player pool.
2025
NHL ARC 3.0
- 36 AI models.
- 95 proprietary metrics.
- 85% accurate career-based
- 74% accurate season-level predictions
- NHL Playoff Predictor 1.0
- 15 of 16 playoff teams accurately predicted by game 10 of the 2024-25 season
- New NHL Team Dataset with 700 proprietary metrics
What can you do with Probility AI?
Roster Optimization
Analyze potential players with expiring contracts in a way your competitors can't.
Roster Management
ARC injury and performance predictions sharpens a team's roster management capabilities.
Scout at Scale
Identify players from across the league with the requirements that fit your team best.
Contract Negotiation
Craft contracts that align player incentives and payment with team goals.
Contract Structure
Estimating a player's remaining games and performance helps GMs structure contracts.
Extend Player Careers
ARC feature analysis reveals key injury predictors, helping teams reduce athlete risk.
2026
Probility takes the next evolution of its proprietary prediction engine and targets the sports gambling industry. Our injury and performance predictions are now available to:
- Sportsbooks
- Social betting sites
- Odds Makers
- Futures Markets
The global sports betting and fantasy sports markets will surpass $238B in revenue by 2030. Probility will disrupt how that revenue flows.
Coming Soon:
- NHL ARC 4.0
- Injury and performance predictions by season and career available by API
- Consumer sports betting and fantasy sports player BETA App
- Game-by-game injury and performance predictions
- NFL ARC 3.0
- MLB ARC 1.0
- NBA ARC 1.0