At Probility AI, we’re driving transformative change in the world of sports analytics, with a specific focus on the NHL and NFL. For years, the quest for a metaphorical crystal ball that could precisely reveal a player’s trajectory has been the Holy Grail in the intricate realm of player contracts. This quest shapes a player’s market value and fuels contract negotiations, making it a critical pursuit for sports teams.
Beyond Traditional Valuation: AI’s Role in the NFL and NHL
Traditionally, valuing players involved a complex puzzle anchored in concepts like Net Present Value and Real Options theory. It relied heavily on the expertise of seasoned hockey scouts, coaches, executives, and contract analysts. Crafting valuations, considering market dynamics, and assessing player potential while navigating the complexities of contract negotiations were largely based on experiential intuition and descriptive analytics. Both are essential in determining a player’s worth and corresponding contract value. However, the balance between team interests and player rights has played out in the NFL and NHL for decades, further intensified by the advent of the salary cap era in both sports. Is there room for new discoveries to make this process better and achieve superior outcomes for teams and players?
Predicting player futures
AI is now reshaping this landscape, not by replacing human expertise but by enhancing it. At Probility AI, we recognize that predicting a player’s future performance, evaluating their availability, and assessing “comparable futures” are fundamental to effective player contract determination. AI’s transformative influence is rapidly evolving this concept, and our mission is to turn this vision into reality.
Redefining Comparables with Advanced AI
Our journey begins with the ambitious task of helping GMs understand “comparable” in this new landscape. In the past, comparable meant contract length, negotiating rights, and previous performance statistics. In today’s AI-driven world, comparable can mean so much more. For instance, in the NHL, it can now include “predicted career games played comparable,” “predicted next season games played comparable,” “predicted career TOI comparable,” “predicted next season TOI comparable,” “predicted career points comparable,” and “predicted next season points comparable,” among others. Probility AI aims to redefine how GMs perceive comparable players and the terminology surrounding them.
Simultaneously, Probility AI is building predictive models that leverage data spanning over two decades, encompassing hundreds of player attributes. Through AI modeling, we empower teams to predict career trajectories and upcoming seasons while factoring in elements like team dynamics, individual performance, coaching, injuries, and even player biographical data (e.g., birth city, handedness, experience, etc.). Using advanced AI models, we determine which “player features” are malleable and, if changeable, how much change is needed to improve performance or career longevity.
Creating Unique Arbitrage Scenarios with Probility AI
What sets Probility AI apart is our commitment to creating arbitrage scenarios—a unique proposition that allows teams to confidently assess a player’s value within their organization, in comparison to rival clubs and the broader market. While understanding a player’s contract status (think UFA, RFA, etc.) remains crucial, our AI-driven approach effectively manages performance uncertainties across rosters, enabling GMs and executives to make more informed decisions. AI has opened doors for exploration, uncovering the critical factors that drive accurate predictions. This empowers Probility AI to refine and enhance contract negotiations for teams across the entire sports spectrum.
In a realm where precision and informed decision-making are paramount, Probility AI is proudly leading the charge. We aren’t just leveraging AI; we’re trailblazing its application in a manner that revolutionizes how teams assess player and roster risks. The future of sports analytics is unfolding before us, and Probility AI is at the forefront.
Stay tuned as Probility AI continues to unveil more about this journey. If the fusion of AI, finance, and sports intrigues you, let’s connect and share insights. Together, we can continue to shape a future where data-driven decisions power every play, every player, and every championship.